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introduction
We are pleased to present the second edition of the Duetti and Billboard Music Finance Index. Our first Index, which we published 6 months ago, was reviewed by thousands of stakeholders who work directly with artists including managers, lawyers, and other members of their teams. Our goal is to increase transparency in a historically opaque market and to share insights and perspectives we hope will empower music creators to make the best financial and catalog management decisions for themselves. Our Index continues to draw on a curated panel of industry experts and insiders, tracking how opinions of catalog multiples vary across key deal dimensions, including rights type, catalog age, genre, and geography.
With the second edition of the Music Finance Index, we have built on findings from the first study, tracking how the expectations from that edition matched reality, examining how perceptions of multiples and deal volume have evolved so far this year, and introducing new questions on how deals get done or what causes them to fall through.
As we enter the second half of 2026, the picture that emerges from our panel is one of a largely stable investment market compared to last year. Perceptions of multiples and deal activity have largely held, and market participants are cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year. We are also detecting a compression of expectations at the top of the valuation curve and a slight cooling in certain genres.
Lior Tibon
CEO & Co-Founder, Duetti
Valuations Rise Steadily with Age, With Growth In Young Publishing
As we observed six months ago, catalog age remains the clearest and most consistent driver of perceived valuation. This makes intuitive sense: younger catalogs are earlier in their typical revenue “decay curve," and a new catalog generating $1M in net revenue today may generate half that in a few years. Multiples therefore cannot be compared on an “apples to apples” basis - it may make financial sense to sell a younger catalog for a “lower” multiple early and lock in the monetary value, versus waiting a few more years with all the uncertainty associated with how performance could change. Additionally, proceeds from an early sale could be invested elsewhere, and it may end up as a much better financial decision versus waiting out for a higher headline multiple - but potentially a lower monetary value - later on.
We have introduced a new category for our second edition which did not exist previously - of catalogs aged 6-24 months. Duetti views this category as the “new frontier", and last month we were the first company to secure financing and launch the option for independent artists to sell masters (or parts thereof) as young as 6 months old. This is a particularly difficult category to establish price expectations in - track performance tends to be highly volatile, and the entire concept of a “multiple” (which is calculated based on annual revenue) for very young tracks is questionable. With that being said, we thought that it would be informative to see expectations for that band.
In terms of actual results, our panel perceives masters in the 6-24 months old band to start from a base of 3.8x, rising to as high as 5.1x. From there, the curve rises steadily: from a base of 5.9x (2–5 years) to 8.1x (5–10 years) to 10.2x (10+ years). Publishing multiples follow a parallel trend path, albeit more expensive, starting from a base of 4.7x (6 months – 2 years), 6.9x (2–5 years), 9.5x (5–10 years), and 12.1x (10+ years). The Publishing “premium” over Masters is consistent across every age band, and it widens as catalogs mature. At the youngest end, the gap between average Publishing and Masters bases is +0.9x. By the 5–10 year band it has grown to +1.4x, and in the 10+ year cohort it reaches +1.9x.
Across all age bands, lawyers perceive meaningfully higher multiples than managers, particularly at the upper end of the curve. For example, for 10+ year Masters, lawyers in our panel average 12.9x compared to 10.9x for managers. The gap is wider still on Publishing: lawyers see 16.6x against 13.4x for managers. This likely reflects the fact that lawyers spend more time and are more focused on larger premium catalog deals.
Our mid-year Index includes an expanded panel, so slight variations in results are to be expected. With that context, we note a number of more significant developments when comparing reported multiples between H2 2025 and H1 2026:
(i) Younger Publishing: The average multiple expectations for publishing catalogs in the 2–5 year range increased by almost 20% vs our January Index. This could indicate growing buyer confidence in their ability to predict and manage publishing catalogs, which are generally considered to be more difficult to track and administer compared to masters.
(ii) Narrowing of valuation ranges: The range of multiples reported by our panel has compressed significantly since our January Index. The largest compression is found in older catalog (10+ years) - making it the only age band that showed declines in average multiple expectations. There are fewer outliers in both directions with a rising floor and declining ceiling, both of which lead to a midpoint that has remained stable. This is consistent with our panel's view that multiples haven't changed much since H2 2025.
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Cautious Optimism for H2 2026, Following a Softer Than Expected H1
Over half (54%) of our respondents characterized multiples in H1 2026 as broadly unchanged compared to H2 2025. Of the remaining respondents, 29% reported multiples declined versus just 17% who saw an increase. When we subtract the percentage of respondents who reported an increase versus those that reported a decline, we get a net change of -12%, which signals a market remaining relatively flat. The dominant perspective that the market was remaining flat stands in contrast to what our panel thought H1 2026 would look like, when they predicted a net positive outlook of +19%.
Nevertheless, looking forward to H2 2026, respondents are still somewhat bullish on the direction of acquisition multiples in the coming months. 33% expect multiples to increase (3% significantly, 30% slightly), versus 13% expecting a decline. 54% expect multiples to stay about the same, producing a +20% net positive reading.
Genre Divides Deepen: Latin and Country Pull Away as EDM and Pop Cool
While our panel is cautiously optimistic for H2 2026, they do expect certain genres will see more deal activity than others. Latin and Country stand out as the clearest growth engines, while EDM and Pop show signs of cooling after periods of elevated activity in H2 2025.
Latin continues to lead all genres in expected deal activity. 78% of respondents expect deal volume to increase for the Latin genre, versus just 3% expecting a decrease. This 75% net difference (calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents who reported an increase versus those that reported a decline) is slightly larger than the 67% reported in January. Continued streaming growth across Latin America combined with strong global crossover appeal keeps buyer demand growing. Country had the most significant positive movement (+60% net, up from +48%), reflecting continued mainstream momentum and a buyer base that has grown increasingly comfortable with country catalog as a long-duration asset class.
R&B / Soul is the positive surprise genre of this index. After posting 0% net growth expectations in January - with increase and decrease expectations perfectly balanced - the genre has recovered to +29% net in this panel, driven by a sharp drop in panelists who expect a "decrease.” Its net figure is similar to Pop, but with a much more consistent outlook as 65% of respondents expect deal volume to stay the same and only 3% expect a decrease.
Rock / Alt / Indie holds steady since January, moving from +23% to +24% in terms of net outlook. Hip-Hop / Rap remains a genre with the lowest growth expectations: 29% expect more deals, 26% expect fewer, for just +3% net growth expectations.
Among major genres, only Pop and EDM / Dance saw meaningful pullbacks. Pop has dropped from +52% to +29% net, and EDM from +44% to +15%. Both genres saw elevated buyer interest in the last period and the current reading predicts that there will be a cooldown in these genres.
Emerging Regions Gain Even More Ground; Japan Makes a Notable Move
Across every region in the survey, more respondents expect deal volume to increase than decrease. Activity is expected to remain healthy in core markets, but the strongest perceived growth continues to come from those emerging territories. Indeed, the emerging market story has strengthened further - Latin America, South Korea, and India all held or improved their already-strong readings from January.
Latin America is the clear outlier: 93% of respondents see deal volume increasing and 0% see it decreasing, which is the highest reading of any market and approaches near-unanimity among our panel. South Korea, India, and Middle East + Africa are also posting strong readings, with none of the respondents expecting a decrease in South Korea or India. These markets share a common profile: growing paid streaming bases, lower historical levels of catalog acquisition activity, and an expanding pool of rights holders open to transactions.
Japan is the biggest mover when compared to H2 2025, bringing it in line with the other high-growth Asian markets; this could reflect the increasing openness among domestic rights holders to consider transactions. In established markets, the US and Continental Europe post +44% and +45% net differences respectively, with a meaningful share of panelists expecting stability in both regions. The UK is the softest of the core markets at +25% net growth.
Deal Size: Broad-Based Momentum, with the Mid-Market Gaining Ground
Panel participants continue to believe the strongest deal activity growth in H2 2026 will be concentrated in smaller deals, which have historically been overlooked by larger institutional buyers.
The most momentum sits in sub-$5M catalogs, with both the <$1M and $1M–$5M brackets posting strong net positive readings. The $1M–$5M segment has the most positive response at +54% net growth. The $5M–$15M bracket also remains net positive, though with a higher share of "decrease" responses as deal size increases.
The top end remains the clear outlier. For $15M+ catalogs, 38% expect more deals while 26% expect fewer - by far the weakest net reading (+12%) and the only bracket with a meaningful "decrease" response rate. This confirms the widely held view that the large-cap segment is more saturated following the burst of activity in prior years and is expected to hold steady, but without meaningful growth.
Who's Buying: Financial Funds and Major Labels Dominate
New to this edition of the Index, we asked respondents to identify who they see as the most active catalog buyers in today's market. This was a multi-select question - respondents could identify multiple buyer types they observe in the market.
Financial funds dominate the field, cited by 76% of respondents, followed by major labels and publishers at 61%, and other music companies (such as independent labels, distributors, and publishers) at 27%. This suggests that strategic acquirers are increasingly competing alongside financial buyers, often with different return profiles and holding period expectations. Family offices (10%) and individuals (2%) represent a smaller but notable presence at the more bespoke end of the market.
How Deals Come Together: Trusted Advisors Lead the Way
When it comes to how sellers are approaching the market, trusted relationships and expert guidance remain central to the process. We asked respondents to identify how they believe sellers most commonly bring catalog to market.
57% of respondents believe sellers most commonly engage a lawyer, manager, or other advisor to facilitate their catalog transaction. This underscores the extent to which the catalog sale process remains relationship-driven and advisory-led, rather than running through formal market mechanisms.
External brokers account for only 13% of transactions. The remaining share is split evenly across three routes: direct outreach to a known buyer, direct outreach to multiple buyers, and inbound approaches from buyers themselves. This last category - sellers being approached by buyers directly - suggests that in an active market, the most recognizable catalogs are attracting proactive buyer interest.
What's Getting in the Way: Valuation Expectations Remain the Top Barrier
We also asked respondents to identify the most common barriers to deals getting done. This was a multi-select question - respondents could identify multiple challenges they observe in the market.
Valuation expectations are, by a significant margin, the most commonly cited barrier to deals getting done: 74% of respondents identify this as a key challenge. The gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are willing to pay is the single biggest friction point in the market. One reason for this is the lack of transparency and clarity on market fundamentals and trends - which this Index is attempting to address.
Legal and financial diligence issues each account for 34% of responses - a meaningful share that reflects the structural complexity of music rights transactions. Chain of title issues are an ongoing challenge, where ownership histories can span decades and multiple territories. This and financial diligence issues - especially auditing historical royalty statements, add time and cost to closing.
Lack of seller motivation (24%) and lack of sufficient active rights (13%) round out the top challenges. Together, these findings paint a picture of a market where deals are available, but getting from initial interest to close requires clearing meaningful structural and expectation-related hurdles.
It is also worth noting that how respondents rank the remaining barriers depends heavily on where they sit in the deal ecosystem. Managers are the group most likely to flag lack of seller motivation as a significant challenge - 45% cite it, versus just 14% of lawyers. Managers are often the ones having the conversation with artists or rights holders who are curious but not committed, and for whom inertia rather than pricing is the actual obstacle. Lawyers, by contrast, see chain of title and financial diligence as equally significant hurdles as valuation expectations (57% each across all three). Their vantage is from the diligence table - by the time a lawyer is involved, motivation has usually been established, and what remains is the structural work of getting a deal closed.
Participate in our next study
If you are interested in taking part in our next study and/or want to provide any feedback on our results, click the link below. Those who are selected to become panel participants will benefit from advance access to the results and invite-only deeper overview and discussions.
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