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introduction
Duetti and Billboard created the Music Finance Index as an industry-first, recurring benchmark, focused on current views and perceptions on music catalog valuations, rooted in the perspectives of the people doing the work on the ground - managers, lawyers, artists, and the teams that support them. The Index is intentionally centered on the perceptions of music industry stakeholders, rather than buyout funds and financial institutions that can be a few steps removed from the “action” in the space. Drawing on a curated panel of industry experts and insiders, it tracks how opinions of catalog multiples - defined as the price paid for a catalog relative to its trailing 12-month net revenue - vary across key deal dimensions, including rights type, catalog age, genre, and geography.
This first edition is not intended to reduce valuation to a single number, but to create a consistent lens for tracking how these perceptions evolve, why they may be shifting, and how expectations shift over time. A revenue multiple is a useful shorthand, but it is inherently incomplete: actual prices reflect a wide set of interacting factors such as catalog composition and durability, concentration risk, regional nuances, age, and growth trajectory.
The Index’s goal is to increase transparency in a historically opaque market and share insights and perspectives which we hope will empower music creators to make the best financial and catalog management decisions for themselves. This is aligned with Duetti’s long-term mission of empowering music creators to have better control over their careers.
Lior Tibon
CEO & Co-Founder, Duetti
Valuations–and Disagreement–Rise With Age
Catalog age is the strongest divider in today’s valuation landscape. This is widely recognized by industry stakeholders; for instance, younger catalogs are typically earlier in their “decay curve,” and so a catalog that generates $1M today can, and often will, earn as little as half that in a few years. Therefore, while the multiple expectations on younger catalogs may seem low when compared to older catalogs, under certain scenarios it may end up being a better financial decision to sell versus waiting a few years and taking the risk of approaching the market with a lower base. This is because younger catalogs usually exhibit a much higher degree of volatility, which can add significant risk to a deal. Our industry panel perceives age as a key factor in driving headline multiples upward. Their opinion is that Masters move from a base (lower end of the valuation range) of 3.5x (2–5 years) to 5.7x (5–10 years) to 5.8x and higher(10+ years). Their opinion on Publishing follows a slightly steeper slope, rising from a base of 3.2x to 6.1x to 8.7x. Importantly, our panel shows that there is a wide range of potential perceived multiples at each band - showing that age is only one factor in determining valuation outcome (other critical factors being genre, regions, historical earnings volatility, and many other qualitative and quantitative considerations).
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Interestingly, older catalogs also exhibit a higher degree of variability in terms of perceptions of their value. The spread widens meaningfully as catalogs age, demonstrating that “older” is not a single category. In the 2–5 year band, the perceived spread between the bottom and the top of the range is relatively narrow (Masters 6x spread; Publishing 6.6x spread). The 5–10 year band remains similarly tight (Masters 6.8x spread; Publishing 7.8x spread). The biggest divergence in perceptions shows up in 10+ years, where the spread expands substantially (Masters 13x spread; Publishing 11.2x spread). In practical terms, the oldest band contains the widest range of perceived outcomes. At this stage, there are certain catalogs which are clearly perceived as “winners” and merit a significant premium, while others are not able to keep up - either due to a deficit in notoriety over a decade, or as a result of administrative complexities and other logistical hurdles.
Finally, the opinion gap in valuations for masters versus publishing rights becomes more pronounced with age. In newer catalogs, Publishing and Masters are perceived by our panel as to trade at a similar range. After 5 years, Publishing seems to pull ahead: +1.4x for the 5-10 year band and +1.1x for the 10+ year band (at the higher end of the range). Older publishing catalogs have more data and a better established track record in terms of their ability to get monetized via ancillary and “add on” usage - such as synchronization rights in TV, film or video games - leading to a premium valuation beyond the “steady state” of royalties via streaming services.
Cautious Optimism for 2026 replaces a somewhat soft second half of 2025
Nearly half of our panel respondents perceived multiples to stay about the same over the past six months (47%), but the balance tilted slightly negative: 30% reported multiples decreased slightly, compared with 24% who saw an increase (7% significantly, 17% slightly). Netting “increase” minus “decrease,” that puts the prior period at -7%, which is a signal of mild softening. Notably, none of the respondents reported multiples decreasing significantly.
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Looking forward into H1 2026, the tone changes - though it’s still modest. For the next six months, 42% expect multiples to increase (3% significantly, 39% slightly), versus 23% expecting a decline (23% decreased slightly, 0% significantly). Another 35% expect multiples to stay about the same. That produces a +19% net positive reading, a meaningful swing from the prior period. Importantly, this is subtle optimism: the dominant expectation is slight improvement, not a sharp step-up.
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Not All Genres Rise: Deal activity for Latin catalogs expected to surge, while Hip-Hop and R&B will stall
While survey participants are cautiously optimistic for H1 2026, they believe deal activity growth will be most pronounced for Latin, Pop, Country and EDM/Dance, while the majority of respondents predict almost no growth for Hip-Hop and R&B.
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Latin is the clear #1 genre in terms of expected growth in deal activity. This continues the recent momentum for Latin catalog deals - on the back of the growing popularity of the genre for global audiences, and the ongoing strong adoption of paid music streaming in Latin America. 71% of respondents expect Latin deal volume to increase, versus just 4% expecting a decrease, for +67% net growth. Pop and Country also look set for heavy volume gains: Pop posts 55% increase / 3% decrease (+52% net growth), and Country shows 52% / 4% (+48%). EDM/Dance is another notable gainer, with 56% expecting increases against 12% decreases (+44%), suggesting meaningful momentum. Rock/Alt/Indie is positive but more tempered (35% / 12%; +23%), implying steady activity rather than a surge.
In contrast, survey participants expect Hip-Hop and R&B to experience little to no growth in deal making activity in H1 2026. Importantly - our respondents are split in their opinion on Hip-Hop/Rap, with 32% expecting more deals but a sizable 25% expecting fewer - leaving only +7% net growth and the most contested outlook of any major genre. R&B/Soul is stalled, with increase/ decrease expectations balanced (19% up / 19% down; 0% net growth) and the highest “stay the same” share (63%).
Emerging Regions Lead Deal-Volume Expectations
Across every region in the survey, more respondents expect deal volume to increase than decrease, but the gap is widest in a set of emerging, fast-growing markets. Deal activity is still healthy in the core markets (such as the US, the UK and Continental Europe) - but the highest growth is expected to come from those emerging territories.
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In more established markets, expectations skew positive but modest. The United States shows 45% expecting increased deal volume versus 13% expecting decreases (+32% net positive growth). The United Kingdom is slightly stronger on net (43% up / 7% down; +36%), while Continental Europe is similar (39% / 9%; +30%). Japan (35% / 5%; +30%) and Other English Speaking Markets like Canada and Australia (36% / 4%; +32%) also lean positive, but with a heavy “stay the same” share (both 60%), suggesting steady activity rather than an obvious surge.
The strongest directional changes emerge in several higher-growth regions, where the data suggests respondents perceive real acceleration and minimal declines. Latin America is the clear outlier: 82% of respondents see deal volume increasing and 0% see it decreasing. Middle East + Africa is similarly one-sided (68% up / 0% down), as is South Korea (63% / 0%). India also screens as strongly positive (74% up / 5% down; +68%).
Panel participants clearly see the strong momentum in deal making coming from emerging regions - which start from a lower base in terms of historical catalog activity, and benefit from strong momentum on the back of overall paid music consumption growth.
Market Growth Is Skewed towards Smaller Deals
Panel participants believe the strongest growth driver in H1 2026 will be concentrated in <$1M deals - which historically have been overlooked by larger institutional buyers.
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The most momentum sits in <$1M catalogs: 64% expect deal volume to increase and just 4% expect decreases, producing +61% net positive growth. The $1M–$5M bracket is also firmly positive (52% up / 7% down; +45%), pointing to continued growth in the “workhorse” segment of the market. $5M–$15M also remains net positive (46% / 14%; +32%), but the rise in “decrease” responses signals more uneven expectations as size increases.
The top end is the clear outlier. For $15M+ catalogs, 41% expect more deals while 34% expect fewer - just +7% net positive growth, by far the weakest reading. This confirms the widely perceived view of getting close to “saturation” in activity for the “mega” catalogs - it is expected to continue, but without much growth left following the burst of buyout activity in the past few years.
Takeaways for H1 2026
1. Expansion is likely to be breadth-led: the Index implies near-term market growth will be driven more by higher volume in sub-$5M deals than by growth in $15M+ transactions.
2. Latin stands out as the clearest growth engine: it has the strongest positive outlook, aligning with the broader expansion narrative more than any other genre.
3. The next six months look like modest uplift: sentiment shifts from slight softness to net positive expectations, with gains concentrated in “increase slightly” rather than a sharp re-pricing.
4. Deal activity is increasingly global: the strongest perceived volume growth is in Latin America, India, MEA, and South Korea, suggesting incremental throughput is building outside the traditional core markets.
conclusion
Our first Music Finance Index sets a baseline for multiples and highlights other trends. We view these findings as insightful in their own right, but their added value will also be cumulative over time. We intend to continue with monitoring perceptions on the catalog valuation environment every 6 months - and therefore move from a single snapshot into more sophisticated analysis of trends. We will also look into expanding our panel and topics covered in the future. We look forward to sharing our next Music Finance Index with you.
If you are interested in taking part in our next study and/or want to provide any feedback on our results, click the link below. Those who are selected to become panel participants will benefit from advance access to the results and invite-only deeper overview and discussions.
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